Since the joint opposition has submitted two sets of documents, one for the requisition of the National Assembly session and the other for voting on the no-trust motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, political temperature have started to rise with the opposition claiming to have enough numbers in the lower house to turn the tables on the premier, who they say was going to “pay for his belligerent and disdainful behaviour”.
Apparently, opposition parties are confident that they have the essential 172 votes in a 342-member assembly, the government is equally confident that the opposition will face a crushing defeat because they are backed by their coalition partners including the Pakistan Muslim League-Q and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, which have so far kept the cards close to their chest.
Currently, the PTI and its coalition partners have 179 members in the NA while the combined opposition has 162
Analysts say that apparently, it is a calculated gamble but it was more on the political wheeling and dealing on both sides to turn the tables against each other. They say that the next few days are very crucial for Imran Khan to win the support of disgruntled PTI lawmakers and keep his allies on his side because the opposition is banking on estranged members of the ruling party and its allies.
They also say that in Pakistan’s political history, no prime minister or an elected government has ever been removed through a vote of no confidence. However, they say that given the unpredictability of Pakistani politics, nothing can be ruled out or taken for granted at this stage. They, however, say that the government and especially the prime minister is feeling the heat because of the widening cracks with the ruling party.
Senior lawyer and political analyst Azhar Siddiqui said that the prime minister will survive the no-confidence vote as, according to him, the opposition will not be able to muster the support of 172 members.
He said that so far, the PTI’s coalition partners especially the MQM and the PML-Q have not come up with a definite statement to vote in favour of the opposition-sponsored motion.
He said that PTI’s coalition partners were currently looking for a bargain and the opposition has nothing to offer while the government has all wherewithal in the shape of development funds, which they desperately need for their constituencies ahead of the next general election.
Siddiqui said that the PTI may have three or four dissidents within the party, they will be managed and may be asked not to show up on the day of voting on the no-trust motion.
He also said that PTI and its coalition partners may possibly not show up on the day of voting, which will leave the opposition to scratch their heads to gather the requisite numbers in support of their resolution.
He, however, cautioned that opposition parties may take to the streets as a last resort and create the law-and-order situation, forcing the army to intervene and impose martial law.
Political commentator and senior lawyer Reema Omar said that lawmakers are supposed to vote according to the party line during the vote of no-confidence. “If they don’t, the party head can initiate the process to de-seat them following their vote or abstention, if it is against the party line,” the lawyer said.
However, she said, the process to de-seat a parliamentarian is a complex process and involves a number of steps: the party head has to provide the parliamentarian with a show-cause notice, after which they make a declaration of defection and send it to the speaker. The speaker has to send it to the CEC, who puts this before the ECP for confirmation or rejection, after giving the parliamentarian a hearing. The parliamentarian is only de-seated after ECP makes a decision confirming the declaration. The parliamentarian then has the right to appeal the decision before the SC. This was clarified by the SC in Imran Khan vs Aisha Gulalai case
Omar said that this process shows a number of things: “Firstly, Pakistan’s anti-defection law is punitive: the objective is to deter parliamentarians from voting against party line by possibly de-seating them if they cross the floor on certain issues such as a vote of no-confidence. Secondly, our law is not pre-emptive – parliamentarians cannot be stopped from voting against the party line and their votes are not disregarded if they are against the party line.”
Omar said in 2018, PKMAP MPA Manzoor Kakar voted against the party line in the election for Balochistan chief minister. Later, the ECP de-seated him. His vote, however, was not cancelled or discarded, she said.
“And thirdly, the disqualification is not automatic – the parliamentarian must be provided due process and a fair hearing before they can be de-seated,” she said.
“The interpretation by certain lawyers that the party head can disqualify before a vote, and the speaker is empowered to discard the votes against party line is clearly unconstitutional, and appears a disingenuous interpretation of an otherwise clear, unambiguous procedure,” the lawyer said.
JUI-F senator Murtaza Javed claimed that the opposition parties have the support of more than 172 members. He said that a number of PTI lawmakers were in contact with them. He, however, said that their names could not be disclosed for secrecy.
The JUI-F leader said that the condescending rhetoric and language of the prime minister was causing the sink of his ship.
Answering a question, he said that his party may take to the streets to topple the PTI government if they fail to do so through the vote of no-confidence.
Meanwhile, Imran Khan’s supporters took to Twitter with hashtag #ReadyForDChowk, expressing their readiness to converge on Islamabad on the eve of the voting on the no-trust motion.
One of his supporters Nazar Fareed Watto wrote on Twitter: “Khan has confidence not only in himself but also in you Pakistanis. He is confident that you’re a nation that stands by the truth. He risked his life to fight against mafias. Join your Kaptan at D-Chowk to tell all the chors (thieves) that you stand by him.
