Dar says rupee to bounce back, trading below its real value

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There is a need to create an awareness that those who are hoarding dollars and other foreign currencies would eventually end up losing money

ISLAMABAD: Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said on Thursday that the Pakistani Rupee’s real value remains at around 244 to a dollar and those who are hoarding the foreign currency would eventually book losses.

While presenting the economic survey for the fiscal year 2023 at a press conference in Islamabad, the finance minister said that the rupee remains under pressure not because of the fundamentals but speculations.

On Thursday, the Pakistani rupee was trading at around 301 to dollar in the open market.

Dar said that when he assumed the charge of the finance ministry in September 2022, he predicted that the dollar would soon be trading at below 200 rupees. The rupee did come down to 217 level, but then because of speculations and artificials reasons, it took a beating against the foreign currency, he added.

The finance minister said that there is a need to create an awareness that those who are hoarding dollars and other foreign currencies would eventually end up losing money.

GDP for the Ongoing Fiscal Year

According to documents shared by the minister, Pakistan registered a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 0.29% for the outgoing fiscal 2022-23 (July-June), missing the target of 5.0% by a huge margin.

This nominal growth came mainly on the back of 1.55%, -2.94%, and 0.86% growth in the Agriculture, Industry, and Services sectors respectively — all three widely missing their targets

Most notable was the 2.94 % contraction in the industrial sector, against a target of 7.1pc growth.

In the outgoing financial year, Pakistan registered inflation of 29.2% in the 11-month period from July 2022 to May 2023, against 11.3% in the same period last year. The government had targeted inflation at 11.5% for FY2023. The high inflation is mainly because of the sharp depreciation of the rupee and high commodity prices in the international market.

The Federal Board of Revenue tax collection grew 16.1% to Rs6,210bn from July to May, compared to Rs5,348.2bn in the year-ago period. The collection target for the 12-month period set by the government was Rs7,470bn.

Pakistan Exports Declined

The Survey document reveal that Pakistan’s exports declined by 9.9% during July to March to $ 21bn compared to $23bn in the same period last year, while imports during the same period amounted to $43.7bn compared to $58.9bn in the same period last year, reflecting a decline of 25.7%. This reduction came on the back of controlled imports to protect the country’s fast depleting foreign exchange reserves. As a result, the country’s trade deficit significantly shrank to 6.0% of GDP, compared to 10.4% from last year.

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